BOSTON -- Colliers International, a leading global real estate services firm, today issued its 2010 Retail Trends and Opportunities report. Per Colliers' report, while retail vacancies will stabilize in many markets, we're not out of the woods yet, as new retail construction has virtually disappeared and lease rates have dropped 25-40 percent from peak levels.
At the outset of 2010, it became clear that the commercial real estate foreclosure crisis will not play out as the tsunami many forecasters predicted, and as such, Colliers has dubbed 2010 as the year in which "not as bad is the new good." Challenges abound in the retail marketplace, and we'll witness more retail failures, more bankruptcies, and more store closures ahead. But the good news is that amid this landscape, consumer sentiment and spending will begin to improve, thus bolstering the retail sector and re-igniting deal activity. According to Colliers' research, there are more retail space-users making moves in the market today than there were a year ago, and Colliers predicts these numbers will only increase going forward.
"It appears that retailers will likely face a period of years during which wave after wave of troubled assets will gradually be returned to the marketplace," remarked Garrick Brown, Colliers International's U.S. retail research director and complier of 2010 Retail Trends & Opportunities. "This will result in further pricing drops, but retail space values have already taken the lion's share of the declines that can be expected. Retail real estate is entering into what's best described as a 'not so fast recovery.'"
Top-line findings from Colliers International's 2010 Retail Trends & Opportunities follow. Visit http://www.colliers.com/Content/Repositories/Base/Markets/USA/English/Market_Report/PDFs/Colliers_USARetailTrendsOpportunities2010_final.pdf for a link to the full report. Please note the "Retailer Expansion Notes" appendix at the end . . . which includes expansion information on 192 retailers and restaurants.
-- Year of the Pop-up: one of the bright spots in retail has been the
emergence of pop-up or temporary retail space. The entry of trendier
retailers into the pop-up game has bolstered landlords' willingness to
do very short-term leases.
-- Cheaper rents translate into more urban activity: Urban storefront
rents have dropped across the board, and consequently, many retailers
previously priced out of such markets are uncovering opportunities,
especially in New York City, where street-front rents have dropped as
much as 40 percent.
-- "Ghost boxes" and "black hole space" join the lexicon; increase in
creative use for such dark spaces: The collapse of big-box retailers
such as Circuit City and Mervyn's has left these spaces empty, and
we're witnessing creative re-use of empty big-box spaces, including
conversions into theaters, libraries and indoor go-kart facilities.
-- Department store players shift to outlet mode: In the face of most
major department stores booking 2009 losses in the double-digits, and
the fact that American consumers remain in frugal mode, it's not
surprising that players such as Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's are
seeking a piece of the off-price action.
-- Dollar Daze! Nowhere in the retail world are we seeing more growth
than from the dollar stores, and dollar store chains such as Dollar
General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree should emerge as the strongest
growth sector in retail over the course of the year. One trend that
could have strong implications for the success of the dollar stores
(and the challenges for traditional grocers) is the continued addition
of food items by many chains.
-- Drug stores and Target will enter grocery fray: Adding to the dollar
store pressure just noted, drug stores such as Walgreens, convenience
store leader 7-Eleven and category-killer Target have all been
aggressively adding grocery store components to their stores.
Speaking of Target, it will also explore a smaller-store concept so it
can capitalize on urban growth opportunities.
-- Strip center landlords thank heaven . . . . for 7-Eleven, the clear
U.S. leader in retail store count by sheer number of stores. While
serving a vital role as a strip center "mini anchor", 7-Eleven is also
making moves to expand into both additional urban and suburban spaces.
-- Shuttered video stores add to retail vacancy, and bookstores continue
to struggle: The result of these flailing formats could add millions
of square feet of additional retail vacancy throughout the U.S. over
the next few years.
-- Restaurants (especially quick service and casual) a bright spot: As
part of the new frugality, fast-food and fast casual operators with
lower price points have fared better and will be in expansion mode
throughout 2010. M&A will be on the rise, and a significant number of
restaurants that operate within the franchise model are expected to
add to their unit numbers.
"Despite ongoing challenges, the retail market is beginning to get a bit of a reprieve from the lashing it took in 2009," remarked Pat Duffy, chairman of Colliers Retail Services Group. "Conditions are now ripe for a 'flight to quality.' With rents down by at least a third on average, the first-mover active users of retail space are seeking out top retail locations for deals. In line with this, we predict urban storefront retail may begin to show signs of stabilization by year-end."
Colliers International is a leading global real estate services company that provides a full range of services to real estate users, owners and investors worldwide. Colliers operates in 61 countries. Services include brokerage, property management, hotel investment sales and consulting, corporate services, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and research.